Market snapshot
Equities and sectors
The Nifty opened 198 points lower at 23,858. Weak global markets, rising bond yields and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment. The index first fell towards 23,790, then recovered to around 23,880 to 23,890 by 10:30 AM. It moved back towards 23,800 around noon. A closing auction lifted the Nifty to 23,914.45, more than 100 points above the day’s low. It still closed around 140 points below the previous close.
| Index | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,914.45 | -0.59% | 24,055.80 |
| Sensex | 76,570.35 | -0.49% | 76,944.28 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 72,947.45 | 0.10% | 72,874.75 |
| Nifty Midcap 150 | 23,114.75 | -0.59% | 23,252.70 |
| Nifty Smallcap 250 | 18,256.30 | -0.58% | 18,363.10 |
| Nifty Microcap 250 | 26,130.25 | -0.59% | 26,284.80 |
Zerodha AfterMarket Report
Sectoral indices
Energy, Realty and PSU Bank closed higher. Auto, Media and IT saw the largest declines.
Zerodha AfterMarket Report
Winners and losers: F&O stocks
Among F&O stocks, JSWENERGY was the top gainer, rising 4.21%. HEROMOTOCO was the biggest loser, falling 4.59%.
Zerodha Technicals
Commodities, currency and bond yields
Crude oil and natural gas moved up, while gold, silver and industrial metals closed lower. Bond yields rose in both India and the United States.
Zerodha AfterMarket Report
| Instrument | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDINR | 95.07 | 0.03% | 95.04 |
| India 10-year bond yield | 6.98 | 0.30% | 6.96 |
| US 10-year bond yield | 4.79 | 0.84% | 4.75 |
Zerodha AfterMarket Report. Where figures differ across publications, the Zerodha figure is used.
Institutional flows
Foreign institutional investors, or FIIs, bought a net ₹1,143 crore on 1 September. Domestic institutional investors, or DIIs, bought a net ₹1,847 crore. Over the five sessions to 1 September, FIIs were net sellers of ₹11,678 crore, while DIIs were net buyers of ₹23,022 crore.
NSE; Zerodha AfterMarket Report
The macro view
Macro tracker: July 2026
Nine of the 16 indicators in Mint’s macro tracker were above or in line with their one-year average in July. This was an improvement from eight indicators in June.
Consumption indicators were strong. Passenger car and van sales grew 34.9% year-on-year in July, up from 15.3% in June. Tractor sales growth rose from 11.9% to 20.5%. Broadband subscriber growth moved up slightly, from 11% to 11.2%.
Mint; CMIE
Other indicators were mixed:
- Domestic air passenger traffic fell 4.8% year-on-year in July. It had fallen 1% in June after growing 9.5% in May.
- Rail freight grew 9% in July, compared with 4% in June.
- Banks’ outstanding non-food credit grew 19.1%, up from 18.3%.
- Core-sector growth slowed from 6% to 5.4%.
- The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, fell for the third month in a row. It declined from 59.3 in May and 57.1 in June to 54.3 in July. PMI measures business activity, and a reading above 50 still indicates expansion.
- July CPI inflation was 4.5%, core CPI inflation was 4.0%, and the labour force participation rate was 42.2%. CPI tracks prices paid by consumers. Core CPI excludes more volatile items such as food and fuel.
Mint; CMIE; Bloomberg
Inflation and the monsoon
Food and beverage inflation is estimated to have risen from 5.2% in July to 5.7% in August. Higher prices for proteins, edible oils, ready-made products and sugar drove the increase.
Around 97% of kharif sowing was complete by 28 August. Total acreage was 1.7% below last year. Rice acreage was down 3.4%, coarse cereals were down 2.3%, and oilseeds were down 0.5%. Pulses were up 1.2%.
Mint
Rainfall weakened in August. It was 15% below normal after being 1% above normal in July. By 28 August, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 13% below normal. The shortfall was concentrated in states that produce 31% of India’s foodgrain, including Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Karnataka and Rajasthan. States responsible for another 66% of foodgrain production received normal to excess rainfall.
Reservoir storage was at 67.8% of live capacity on 27 August, below both last year and the 10-year average. Skymet expects September rainfall to be 20% below normal. It has cut its 2026 monsoon forecast to a 15% deficit and expects El Niño conditions to strengthen in early September.
Mint; IDFC First Bank Economics Research; weather office; Skymet
FCNR(B) window, liquidity and rates
Banks collected $127.2 billion through FCNR(B) deposits before the window closed on 31 August. FCNR(B) deposits allow non-resident Indians to hold fixed deposits in foreign currencies. Another $9.2 billion came through overseas foreign-currency borrowing and external commercial borrowing. Total inflows since the collection began reached $136.4 billion.
RBI foreign-exchange reserves recently reached a record $729 billion. The large inflows also added liquidity to the banking system. System liquidity rose from ₹1.85 trillion on 5 June to ₹7.8 trillion on 1 September. The RBI’s measures announced on 5 June are estimated to have added ₹3.6 trillion of liquidity between 5 June and 14 August. Liquidity is projected to peak at ₹9.9 trillion in September.
Mint; RBI
Short-term funding rates have fallen as liquidity has improved. Rates on three-month certificates of deposit, or CDs, declined to 6.3%. They were between 7.09% and 7.23% when the RBI announced the scheme on 5 June, and between 7.30% and 8.00% at the end of March. Banks raised ₹68,130 crore through CDs in August, below the ₹95,945 crore raised in July.
The RBI kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in August. Citigroup expects the key rate to rise by 50 to 75 basis points between October and March. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The 10-year benchmark government bond yield has already risen from 6.82% on 20 August to 6.98%.
Mint; RBI; Crest Finserv; Primedatabase.com; IDFC First Bank; Bloomberg; Citigroup
Policy and government
- GDP estimates: The government defended its method for estimating national income and June-quarter growth. It said revisions to FY 2025-26 GDP and differences between price measures reflect updated data and methods. Section 06 explains the debate in detail.
- Sovereign rating: Japan Credit Rating Agency upgraded India’s sovereign credit rating by one level, from BBB+ to A-, with a stable outlook. It cited sustained high growth, effective economic policies, a stronger financial system and better-quality government spending. JCR had kept India at BBB+ since 2007. It also raised the country ceiling by one level to A.
- Trade: Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal will visit the United States at the end of September for talks on the proposed trade agreement. Bilateral trade between India and the United States was $140.76 billion in FY 2026. The Bilateral Trade Agreement launched in February 2025 has not yet been finalised.
- Precursor chemicals: The Narcotics Control Bureau is developing a voluntary code of conduct for precursor chemicals. It is working under the home affairs ministry and consulting the Indian Drug Manufacturers Association.
- Nepal: India offered to help Nepal restore hydropower plants, roads and bridges after the floods on 26 August. State-run NHPC and SJVN offered technical help. Around 700 MW of hydropower capacity was knocked out. More than 1,100 people were reported killed and more than 4,800 remained missing.
- Nuclear finance: NITI Aayog member Abhay Karandikar said India’s sovereign green bond framework and its green deposit and financing rules need review because they do not currently cover nuclear investments.
Mint; Reuters; US ambassador to India Sergio Gor; official documents
Credit markets and NBFCs
Non-banking financial companies, also called NBFCs or shadow lenders, are expected to raise at least ₹10,000 crore through rupee bonds as early as next week.
Power Finance Corp is seeking bids for a two-part bond issue of up to ₹5,000 crore. Bajaj Housing Finance plans to raise up to ₹2,000 crore. HDB Financial Services plans at least ₹1,000 crore, Tata Capital at least ₹1,500 crore, and Shriram Finance more than ₹500 crore.
Borrowing costs have risen. Average yields on top-rated two-year and five-year corporate bonds issued by shadow lenders reached 7.98% and 8.09% respectively on Tuesday. Indian companies raised around ₹61,760 crore through private bond placements in August, 45% less than in July.
Non-banks have asked the RBI to clarify the meaning of revolving credit and possible exemptions for some MSME-focused products. The RBI’s draft circular, issued on 6 August, proposed preventing non-banks from offering such facilities. Feedback was due by 28 August.
Mint; Bloomberg; Reuters; Prime Database
Other domestic developments
- Russia and India have built a payments system using roubles and rupees. It now handles 96% of bilateral trade. Russia’s trade with India reached a record $70 billion in 2024.
- Inflows under the RBI’s special overseas deposit facility have crossed $100 billion.
- Indian refiners imported a record amount of soyoil in August and the highest amount of palm oil in six months.
- Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman met Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov on Monday during the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Asheville.
Mint; Reuters; Financial Express; Bloomberg; PTI
Corporate action and earnings
Domestic corporate developments
- Adani Ports: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone handled a record 50 million tonnes of cargo in August. This was 19% more than the 41.9 million tonnes handled a year earlier and was its highest monthly throughput. Dry cargo volumes rose 25% year-on-year, while container volumes rose 15%.
- Amul: Amul was named the world’s strongest dairy brand. Its brand value rose 22% to $5 billion, and its Brand Strength Index score reached 93 out of 100. It ranked fourth among global dairy brands by value.
- Tata Motors: The commercial vehicle business received European Central Bank approval for its €3.8 billion, or around ₹40,000 crore, takeover offer for Iveco Group. This completed the required sector-level regulatory clearances.
- ICICI Bank: The bank raised $17.88 billion through FCNR(B) deposits by 31 August under the RBI’s concessional swap facility.
- Reliance: Reliance Consumer Products entered India’s ice cream market by launching Bombay Creamery.
- La Caisse: The Canadian investment group will invest around ₹12,100 crore for a 24% stake in Brookfield-owned Altius Telecom Infrastructure Trust. La Caisse had CAD 552 billion in net assets on 30 June.
- SoftBank: SVF II Meerkat (DE) LLC is offering 70 million Meesho shares, equal to a 1.5% stake, through a block deal on Thursday. The floor price is ₹205 per share, valuing the deal at around ₹1,435 crore. This is a 3.1% discount to Meesho’s NSE closing price of ₹211.60 on 2 September. BofA Securities India and J.P. Morgan India are the placement agents.
- PVR Inox: The company will buy back up to 2.11% of its paid-up equity capital at ₹1,450 per share. This is a 20% premium to its 31 August price. Promoters, who hold 27.53%, plan to participate. In Q1 FY27, revenue rose 11.9% year-on-year to ₹1,622 crore. Footfalls rose 7.6% to 36.6 million, the average ticket price rose 7.5% to ₹273, and food and beverage spending per person rose 8.8% to ₹161.
- Adani Group: Employee count across nine listed companies fell 8.4%, from 126,499 in FY25 to 115,920 in FY26. This was the first such decline. A group spokesperson said the total workforce, including unlisted businesses and vendors, was 390,080 on 31 July.
- Hexaware: The board ended chief executive Ramakarthikeyan Srikrishna’s 12-year tenure and appointed EXL executive Vivek Jetley for a four-year term. The handover is set for 28 October. Hexaware ended last year with revenue of $1.54 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year. Carlyle owns 74.3% of the company.
- TVS Motor: Dubai-based Peyman Kargar will take over as chief executive from K.N. Radhakrishnan in January. TVS shares have fallen 5% since the announcement, compared with a 1.9% decline in the Nifty Auto index.
- Godrej Consumer: New managing director and chief executive Aasif Malbari announced a plan that includes ₹200 crore of research and development investment and a ₹125 crore to ₹150 crore reduction in general-trade inventory over three quarters.
- Zerodha: Zerodha Corporate Advisors received merchant banking approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India on Wednesday.
- Reliance Life Sciences: The US Food and Drug Administration issued a warning letter about significant breaches of current good manufacturing practice rules at the company’s Navi Mumbai facility. The letter followed an inspection from 19 to 27 February.
- VinFast: The company suspended plans to make three electric vehicles in India. It asked suppliers to stop work while it reviews costs.
- UltraTech: The company plans to expand its logistics electric-vehicle fleet from 100 trucks to more than 600 by December.
- JM Financial: JM Financial Asset Management raised ₹700 crore in the first close of its pre-IPO fund. The fund has a target corpus of ₹1,500 crore.
Zerodha AfterMarket Report; Mint; Brand Finance; Bloomberg; PTI; Reuters; company statements, filings and annual reports
Primary markets
IPO listing gains increased sharply in August. Eighteen companies listed at an average premium of 28% to their offer price. This was five times the average gain of 5.6% for the 36 companies that listed during the first seven months of 2026.
Tempsens Instruments (India) closed 96% above its issue price. Behari Lal Engineering rose 76%, Shiprocket rose 48%, Technocraft Ventures rose 47%, and Dhoot Transmission rose 36%.
Mint; Prime Database
Retail demand also increased. From January to the end of July, retail investors in mainboard IPOs applied for just under 12 times the shares available, on average. In August, this rose to almost 33 times.
Around 58 companies have raised ₹73,757 crore so far this year. SBI Funds raised around ₹9,813 crore, and Manipal Hospitals raised around ₹9,275.22 crore. India’s equity capital markets may see a little over $20 billion of IPOs by year-end. Expected offers include NSE at around $3 billion and Jio Platforms at around $3.8 billion to $4 billion.
Purple Style Labs, the parent of Pernia’s Pop-Up Shop, was subscribed 1.29 times by the end of Wednesday, its final day. The retail portion was subscribed 1.58 times and the qualified institutional buyer portion 1.43 times. Yotta Data Services plans to launch an IPO between January and March 2027 and aims to raise up to $1.5 billion.
Mint; Prime Database; PTI; Reuters; Avendus Capital managing director Gaurav Sood; Yotta Data Services chief executive Sunil Gupta
Sector watch: Data centres
Revenue grew across four large data-centre businesses in FY26. Nxtra Data’s revenue rose 17.1% year-on-year to ₹2,434 crore. Sify Infinit Spaces grew 23.2% to ₹1,760.5 crore. AdaniConneX reported revenue of ₹1,084 crore. ESDS Software Solutions grew 30.7% to ₹472.2 crore.
Mint; Anarock Capital
Together, these four companies account for more than one-third of India’s data-centre market.
Mint; Anarock Capital
Upcoming events
Upcoming economic events
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 3 September 2026 | Inflation, Türkiye |
| 4 September 2026 | Monthly Non Farm, United States |
| 4 September 2026 | Inflation, Philippines |
| 4 September 2026 | Inflation, Russia |
| 4 September 2026 | FX Reserves |
Zerodha Economic Calendar
The 2 September 2026 Zerodha AfterMarket Report did not include a calendar for corporate actions, dividends or earnings. The NSE and BSE corporate announcements pages or the Tijori App can be used for scheduled record dates, ex-dates and results.
Global pulse
Global indices
Major global indices closed lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 had the largest decline among the indices listed below.
Zerodha AfterMarket Report
Global market developments
Crude oil traded around $90 per barrel, close to a six-week high, after rising over the previous two sessions. Growing US-Iran tensions kept concerns about Middle East oil supply high. The US dollar index moved to a two-week high near 99.8 as investors moved towards the dollar amid concerns about the economic effect of higher energy prices.
Dell Technologies shares rose 9% in after-hours trading. Q2 revenue grew 58% year-on-year to $46.97 billion, while adjusted earnings per share of $7.04 were above expectations. The company raised its FY27 revenue forecast to $192 billion.
Taiwanese companies are planning another $20 billion of investment in the United States because of demand for artificial-intelligence applications. European shares remained weak. The STOXX 50 was flat, while the STOXX 600 was down 0.1% and near a one-month low. Uber is reportedly cutting around 3,300 jobs, equal to 10% of its global workforce, as part of a restructuring.
Zerodha AfterMarket Report
G20 meeting and global bond markets
The G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, ended during a global bond-market sell-off. The meeting also involved disagreements over tariffs and a group photograph.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.795% by Tuesday, its highest level since President Trump began his second term. Both short-term and long-term US benchmark yields reached new highs for 2026.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a statement that he said represented the broad position of every country present except China. Without China’s agreement, the group could not release an official consensus statement.
The United States has $40 trillion of government debt. Its labour market lost 23,000 jobs in July, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh attended the meeting and may have to decide whether to raise interest rates as early as this month.
Mint, carrying The Wall Street Journal
US-Iran conflict
The US military said it attacked air defences, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites on Tuesday. Iran reported attacks on several targets near the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran said it attacked US assets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq. Initial US assessments reported no casualties. Iran reported at least 12 deaths from the US strikes during the night. Reuters could not independently verify the incident.
US energy secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Renewed US airstrikes pushed oil prices back to levels not seen since July. Asian and European stock markets fell after the attacks.
Mint, carrying Reuters
Other global developments
- Nepal is seeking climate compensation from the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitters. The official death toll from the 26 August floods in the Bhotekoshi River basin reached 1,114, while nearly 4,000 people remained missing.
- The United Nations Environment Programme said the world is likely to cross 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels within the next few years. The world is already 1.4 degrees warmer. Under its most optimistic scenario, warming peaks at 1.8 degrees around the middle of the century. Under current government policies, temperatures rise by 2.6 degrees by 2100.
- Alphabet’s Google avoided a breakup of its advertising-technology business. US Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Virginia rejected the Department of Justice’s request to force a sale of AdX.
- Jaguar Land Rover opened orders for a fully electric Range Rover on Wednesday. This came one year after a cyberattack stopped production for more than a month and cost the company £196 million, or $264 million.
- BP appointed Ian Tyler as chairman after he served in the role on an interim basis.
- An ONGC Videsh team arrived in Venezuela for a seven-day visit to review assets. The visit came weeks after the company received US approval in July.
Mint; Bloomberg; Associated Press; Reuters; AFP
Management chatter
The remarks below are reproduced exactly as carried in the source.
“Deducing results from two altogether different series is unsolicited, fallacious and an ‘on purpose’ sign of intellectual sclerosis.”Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India, on the GDP series revisions
“Looking historically, whenever there is a pause in the IPO market, the initial wave of issues which get open creates a demand imbalance, pushing listing premiums well past what business fundamentals alone would justify.”Pranav Haldea, Managing Director, Prime Database Group, on August listing gains
“Issuers are lining up in the bond market as interest rates are set to rise.”Soumyajit Niyogi, Director, India Ratings, on the non-bank bond pipeline
“Our core category revenue growth has been actually flattish with profits actually kind of being under pressure.”Aasif Malbari, Managing Director and CEO, Godrej Consumer Products, on the company’s core portfolio in a call with analysts and investors
“The investment climate plays out organically when a state’s policy towards beer consumption is stable and predictable.”Kartikeya Sharma, President, AB InBev India and Southeast Asia, on state policy and capital allocation
“The government on its part needs to provide consistent long-term policy that supports scale and accelerates the development of technologies and components.”Tarun Garg, Managing Director and CEO, Hyundai Motor India, at the 66th Annual Session of ACMA
Feature: Inside the 7.8%: How India’s Q1 GDP number is built, and why it is being contested
GDP data released on 31 August
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, or MoSPI, released India’s GDP estimates for the first quarter of FY 2026-27 on 31 August 2026.
Real GDP, which removes the effect of price changes, grew 7.8%. It had grown 6.9% in the first quarter of FY 2025-26. Nominal GDP, which is measured at current prices, grew 10.3%, compared with 8.1% a year earlier.
MoSPI
The 7.8% real growth rate was higher than the RBI’s forecast of 7.0%. It was also above the 7.1% median forecast in a Reuters survey of 58 economists.
MoSPI; RBI; Reuters
| Indicator | Q1 FY27 | Q1 FY26 |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 7.8% | 6.9% |
| Nominal GDP growth | 10.3% | 8.1% |
| Real GDP level | ₹81.36 lakh crore | ₹75.46 lakh crore |
| Nominal GDP level | ₹88.27 lakh crore | ₹80.00 lakh crore |
| Real GVA growth | 8.2% | 7.0% |
MoSPI press note on GDP estimates for Q1 FY 2026-27; IBTimes, citing MoSPI quarterly estimates
The tertiary sector, which mainly includes services, grew 10%. The secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and construction, grew 8.6%. Gross fixed capital formation, a broad measure of investment in fixed assets, grew 11.9%, compared with 5.8% a year earlier.
Private consumption spending grew 7.1%. Exports of goods and services rose 25.8%, while imports rose 30.5%.
Outlook Business; MoSPI
Outlook Business; MoSPI quarterly estimates, as reported by IBTimes
How GDP is calculated
MoSPI estimates GDP in two main ways. The production approach adds the gross value created by different sectors. The expenditure approach adds consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. Any gap between the two estimates is recorded as a statistical discrepancy.
Several changes affect the latest GDP series:
- Base year: In February 2026, MoSPI changed the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. A base year provides the price and production structure used to compare economic activity over time. MoSPI selected 2022-23 because it was a recent, normal year after COVID and had broad data coverage. Statistics secretary Saurabh Garg said countries usually revise their base year every five to seven years.
- Quarterly method: Quarterly GDP uses a benchmark-indicator method. Annual data provide the benchmark, while sector-specific indicators and data from institutions are used to estimate activity during each quarter.
- New price indices: The revised series uses a new output Producer Price Index, a Banking Services Price Index, a new Index of Industrial Production with 2022-23 as its base year, and updated administrative records.
- More data: The method uses new information made available through GST and wider digital adoption.
- Deflation: Nominal values are converted into real values using price deflators. MoSPI uses more than 300 separate deflators at the item or group level.
- Double deflation: Manufacturing GVA is now calculated by separately removing price changes from output and from intermediate inputs. Real GVA is then calculated from these two real values. The earlier method used one deflator.
MoSPI; PTI; The Federal; News on AIR; ANI; IBTimes
Why the estimate is being questioned
Former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg argued that GDP grew only 2.6% at current prices in Q1 FY27 and was close to zero in real terms.
He calculated 2.6% by comparing nominal GDP of ₹88.27 lakh crore in Q1 FY27 with the ₹86.05 lakh crore originally published for Q1 FY26. In a post on X, he said there were “messier distortions in sectoral performance, with manufacturing and consumption witnessing negative growth”.
Other questions focus on the strength and internal consistency of the data:
- Jobs and investment: Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan questioned whether the reported growth was real. He asked why India was not creating more and better-quality jobs and why investment was not rising more strongly.
- Manufacturing deflator: Manufacturing GVA grew 9.2% in real terms but only 7.7% in nominal terms during April to June. This produced a negative implicit GVA deflator of 1.5%.
- Mining difference: Real mining and quarrying GVA fell 2.4%, while nominal mining and quarrying GVA rose 22.3%.
- Inflation difference: The GDP data imply economy-wide inflation of around 2.5%. This was below CPI inflation of 3.9% and WPI inflation of more than 9%. CPI measures consumer prices, while WPI measures wholesale prices.
- Statistical discrepancy: Questions were also raised about the large gap between the production-side and expenditure-side estimates.
- Political dispute: Congress used Garg’s argument to accuse the government of changing economic data. BJP leader Amit Malviya said the 2.6% calculation was incorrect.
The News Mill, citing ANI; NewsDrum; APN Live; APAC News Network; PTI; Oneindia
How the government is defending the estimate
MoSPI released an additional information note and a detailed questions-and-answers document on 2 September. Statistics secretary Saurabh Garg also spoke to reporters and ANI that day.
The government’s central argument is that figures from different GDP series cannot be compared directly. Saurabh Garg called the comparison “apples and oranges”. He also said, “whenever we do comparison, we need to compare like-for-like”. Year-on-year real growth must be calculated using constant-price numbers from the same series.
The ₹86.05 lakh crore figure came from the old 2011-12 base-year series. The latest FY26 comparison figure comes from the new 2022-23 series and includes later data and method updates.
| Q1 FY26 nominal GDP | Series or publication stage | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| ₹86.05 lakh crore | 2011-12 base-year series | August 2025 |
| ₹80.32 lakh crore | 2022-23 base-year series introduced | February 2026 |
| ₹80.44 lakh crore | Provisional FY 2025-26 estimates | June 2026 |
| ₹80.00 lakh crore | New IIP and PPI series included | 31 August 2026 |
PTI, reporting MoSPI figures. The comparable Q1 FY26 benchmark under the latest series is ₹80.32 lakh crore.
PTI; MoSPI
MoSPI said the move from ₹86.05 lakh crore to ₹80.00 lakh crore happened through several revisions. These reflected the base-year change, better data and methods, and updated indicators. The ministry said it was therefore wrong to treat the change as a deliberate cut to last year’s GDP made only to raise this year’s growth rate.
The ministry also answered the technical questions:
- Manufacturing: A negative implicit manufacturing deflator does not mean manufacturing prices fell. Under double deflation, output prices and input prices are adjusted separately. If input prices rise faster than output prices, nominal GVA can grow more slowly than real GVA. This can create a negative implicit deflator even when both input and output prices are rising. MoSPI identified textiles and cotton ginning, basic metals, and rubber and plastic products as activities where input prices rose faster than output prices. It also referred to OECD research showing that countries using double deflation can record volatile or negative manufacturing deflators during energy and raw-material price shocks.
- Mining: Mining and quarrying PPI inflation was 22% in April, 21.2% in May and 15.5% in June. Crude petroleum and natural gas prices rose as much as 72.2% in May. Metal-ore prices rose more than 23% in each of the three months. However, mining IIP fell 3.8% in April and 1.4% in May before growing 1.6% in June. MoSPI said this production pattern was broadly consistent with the fall in real mining GVA.
- Agriculture: The output PPI for agriculture, forestry and fishing rose around 5% during the quarter. This resulted in a positive implied inflation rate of 3.9%.
- GDP deflator: The GDP deflator covers the whole economy, including investment, government spending, exports and services. It does not have to move in line with CPI or WPI, which cover different groups of prices.
- Statistical discrepancy: The discrepancy is a balancing figure between different methods of measuring GDP. It can change when more complete data become available. Its size alone does not prove that GDP has been understated or overstated. MoSPI said the discrepancy becomes very small or zero in the final current-price estimates, citing FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24.
- Transparency: Saurabh Garg said MoSPI released 64 sets of tables with the latest data. He said the ministry has published extensive data and information about its method since February and May.
- Political response: Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said critics were comparing growth rates from the old series with figures from the new series after the base year had changed.
ANI; PTI; APAC News Network; Tribune India, citing ANI
Independent review of the 2.6% claim
NewsDrum said its review found no statistical basis for the 2.6% claim. It also found no chronological basis for saying that the Q1 FY26 estimate was cut only after the Q1 FY27 number became known.
It added that the new GDP series, particularly the revision to Q1 FY26, can and should be examined. However, any comparison must use figures that are methodologically comparable.
NewsDrum
Sources for the feature
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Press Note on GDP Estimates for Q1 2026-27, 31 August 2026, mospi.gov.in
Press Trust of India, “Apples and oranges: Govt rejects 2.6 pc GDP claim, defends 7.8 pc growth”, 2 September 2026, as carried by The Federal
ANI, “MoSPI Secretary rejects GDP data-fudging claims”, 2 September 2026; “MoSPI rejects claim that last year’s GDP was revised down”, 2 September 2026
APAC News Network, “MoSPI Clarifies Negative Manufacturing GVA Deflator, GDP Revision Concerns”, 2 September 2026
NewsDrum, “Crux: Is Subhash Garg creating a false GDP controversy by mixing old and new series?”, 2 September 2026
Outlook Business, “India’s Growth Engine Roars Back As Real GDP Jumps 7.8%”, 31 August 2026
Other sources: Oneindia; IBTimes; The News Mill; APN Live; Tribune India; News on AIR
Mint is structurally excluded as a source for Section 06. All sources listed above were non-paywalled at the time of compilation. The section headline was written by DayStarter and was not taken from any source.
Closing note
Market data: Zerodha AfterMarket Report, 2 September 2026 close. Editorial: Mint Mumbai print edition, 3 September 2026. Feature: independently sourced from named public publications. Strictly fact-based. No investment advice.